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Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg

Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of "irrational" human behavior.

Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades.

Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors. (Princeton University Press)

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John Kay

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Everlasting Light Bulbs is based on a collection of John's columns for the Financial Times, written between 1996 and 2004. The period was characterised by the dawn of the new economy, fears of 'irrational exuberance', attacks on the legitimacy of capitalism and the greatest speculative bubble in world history that swept the ballgoers off the floor. However, at the time when this collection was put together, a new lot of hopefuls had emerged at the edges of the ballroom, waiting to launch once more to the ballroom floor.

Those who do not learn from history are destined to repeat it. There are enduring truths about how national economies, businesses and industries function - truths valid before 1996, still valid in 2004, and discarded at great danger to our reputations and our wealth. In this book, John shares some of the insights and lessons of his articles during this remarkably turbulent time, and gives thought to how economics illuminates the world - from BT's dress code to the deadweight loss of Christmas.  (The Erasmus Press Ltd)

 

 

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Robert Shiller

In his best-selling Irrational Exuberance, Robert Shiller cautioned that society's obsession with the stock market was fueling the volatility that has since made a roller coaster of the financial system. Less noted was Shiller's admonition that our infatuation with the stock market distracts us from more durable economic prospects. These lie in the hidden potential of real assets, such as income from our livelihoods and homes. But these ''ordinary riches,'' so fundamental to our well-being, are increasingly exposed to the pervasive risks of a rapidly changing global economy. This compelling and important new book presents a fresh vision for hedging risk and securing our economic future. (Princeton University Press)

 

 

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John Kay

Capitalism faltered at the end of the 1990s as corporations were rocked by fraud, the stock-market bubble burst and the American business model - unfettered self-interest, privatization and low tax - faced a storm of protest. But what are the alternatives to the mantras of market fundamentalism? Leading economist John Kay unravels the truth about markets, from Wall Street to Switzerland, from Russia to Mumbai, examining why some nations are rich and some poor, why 'one-size-fits-all' globalization hurts developing countries and why markets can work - but only in a humane social and cultural context. His answers offer a radical new blueprint for the future. (Penguin Books Ltd)

 

 

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Ed. Guillermo A. Calvo, Maurice Obstfeld and Rudiger Dornbusch

Written by Robert Mundell's academic descendants, as well as other leading economists and scholars, the essays in this volume reflect Mundell's broad influence on modern open-economy macroeconomics. The topics include the vicissitudes of gold in the international system, choice of exchange rate regime, post-World War II European monetary reform, banking crises in emerging markets, speculative attacks on fixed exchange rates, monetary policy rules, interactions between economists and policy makers over macrostabilization and structural microeconomic issues, the connection between international factor mobility and trade, the Mundell-Fleming open-economy macro model, the quantitative implications of general-equilibrium sticky price models, the international roles of the euro and yen, and the employment effects of import tariffs. (The MIT Press)

 

 

 

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Amar Bhidé

In a field dominated by anecdote and folklore, this landmark study integrates more than ten years of intensive research and modern theories of business and economics. The result is a comprehensive framework for understanding entrepreneurship that provides new and penetrating insights. Examining hundreds of successful ventures, the author finds that the typical business has humble, improvised origins. Well-planned start-ups, backed by substantial venture capital, are exceptional. Entrepreneurs like Bill Gates and Sam Walton initially pursue small, uncertain opportunities, without much capital, market research, or breakthrough technologies. Coping with ambiguity and surprises, face-to-face selling, and making do with second-tier employees is more important than foresight, deal-making, or recruiting top-notch teams. (Oxford University Press)

 

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Bruce Greenwald and Joseph Stiglitz

Expanding upon the literature of new institutional economics, the first part of this study stresses the significance of imperfections in information, bankruptcy and banks. The second part examines the policy implications of the new paradigm emphasizing loanable fund demand and supply, and demonstrates its relevance to our understanding of two recent historical episodes - the East Asian financial crisis and the 1991 U.S. recession and subsequent recovery and boom. (Cambridge University Press)

 

 

 

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Joseph E. Stiglitz

With his best-selling Globalization and Its Discontents, Joseph E. Stiglitz showed how a misplaced faith in free-market ideology led to many of the recent problems suffered by the developing nations. Here he turns the same light on the United States.

This groundbreaking work by the Nobel Prize-winning economist argues that much of what we understood about the 1990s' prosperity is wrong, that the theories that have been used to guide world leaders and anchor key business decisions were fundamentally outdated. Yes, jobs were created, technology prospered, inflation fell, and poverty was reduced. But at the same time the foundation was laid for the economic problems we face today. Trapped in a near-ideological commitment to free markets, policymakers permitted accounting standards to slip, carried deregulation further than they should have, and pandered to corporate greed. These chickens have now come home to roost.

The paperback includes a new introduction that reviews the continued failure of the Bush administration's policies, which have taken a bad situation and made it worse. (W. W. Norton & Company)

 

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Amar Bhidé

Many warn that the next stage of globalization--the offshoring of research and development to China and India--threatens the foundations of Western prosperity. But in The Venturesome Economy, acclaimed business and economics scholar Amar Bhidé shows how wrong the doomsayers are.

Using extensive field studies on venture-capital-backed businesses to examine how technology really advances in modern economies, Bhidé explains why know-how developed abroad enhances--not diminishes--prosperity at home, and why trying to maintain the U.S. lead by subsidizing more research or training more scientists will do more harm than good.

When breakthrough ideas have no borders, a nation's capacity to exploit cutting-edge research regardless of where it originates is crucial: "venturesome consumption"--the willingness and ability of businesses and consumers to effectively use products and technologies derived from scientific research--is far more important than having a share of such research. In fact, a venturesome economy benefits from an increase in research produced abroad: the success of Apple's iPod, for instance, owes much to technologies developed in Asia and Europe.

Many players--entrepreneurs, managers, financiers, salespersons, consumers, and not just a few brilliant scientists and engineers--have kept the United States at the forefront of the innovation game. As long as their venturesome spirit remains alive and well, advances abroad need not be feared. Read The Venturesome Economy and learn why--and see how we can keep it that way. (Princeton University Press)

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John Kay

How Business Strategies Add Value. What distinguishes the successful firm is the fundamental question in business strategy, and one the most senior managers consistently ask themselves. In Foundations of Corporate Success, John Kay argues that outstanding businesses derive their strength from a distinctive structure of relationships with employees, customers, and suppliers. He explains why continuity and stability in these relationships is essential for a flexible and co-operative response to change. This book has been hailed as a landmark in our understanding of business strategy and is widely used on courses throughout the world. (Oxford University Press)

 

 

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